December 30, 2025- Recently, the international steel market has shown a narrow range of fluctuations and recovery trend under the interweaving of multiple factors. Driven by expectations of a mild global economic recovery and favorable policies, the steel price index has experienced a temporary rebound, but the supply and demand fundamentals remain fragile, and the market as a whole is in a game stage of "strong expectations and weak reality".
Price index fluctuates and rebounds, with significant regional differentiation
Since November 2025, the International Steel Price Index (CRU) has ended a continuous decline, with a slight increase of 1.1% month on month and a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5%. Among them, there is a differentiation in the performance between long timber and sheet metal: the long timber index decreased by 1.3% month on month, reflecting that demand in the construction industry is still suppressed; The board index increased by 2.4% month on month, mainly due to marginal improvement in manufacturing activities and demand for replenishment in downstream industries such as automobiles and machinery. Looking at different regions, the European market was boosted by infrastructure investment, and the steel price index increased by 4.0% month on month; The US market has seen a slight increase in prices due to the rebound in manufacturing PMI; The Asian market saw relatively moderate growth due to weak demand from China.
Intensive release of policy benefits and rising demand expectations
Recently, a combination of policies from multiple countries has injected confidence into the steel market. China's five departments jointly released the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry", which clearly states that demand will be driven through infrastructure investment and real estate stability maintenance; The central bank and other institutions have simultaneously introduced financial support policies for the construction of the Western Land Sea New Corridor, which directly benefits steel intensive projects such as railways and ports. In addition, major economies around the world are increasing their investment in green infrastructure, driving the growth of steel demand for wind and photovoltaic power, and supporting the resilience of sheet metal prices.
The contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and the market is cautiously observing
Despite frequent policy benefits, the pace of recovery in terminal demand is slow. The European manufacturing PMI has once again fallen back to the contraction range, with weak demand in major economies such as Germany and France; The demand for steel in China's real estate market has not significantly improved, and the long implementation cycle of infrastructure projects has led to weak transactions in the spot market. At the same time, global steel production capacity remains high, and competition among enterprises intensifies, suppressing the upward space for prices. On the raw material side, the prices of iron ore and scrap steel remain strong, but fluctuations in coal costs may ease the pressure on steel mills and further stabilize the rise in steel prices.
Outlook: Short term fluctuations are the main focus, and long-term attention should be paid to fulfilling demand
Analysts point out that the current steel market is in a tug of war between "policy support" and "weak demand". In the short term, with low inventory and cost support, prices may maintain a narrow range of fluctuations; The long-term trend depends on the strength of global economic recovery and the effectiveness of policy implementation. If infrastructure investment accelerates and real estate stabilizes in 2026, steel demand is expected to gradually recover, and prices may enter a moderate upward channel.
Conclusion
The international steel market is undergoing a transition period from "fragility and resilience" to "moderate recovery". The balance between policy dividends and demand game will become a key variable in the market trend in 2026.
Post time: Dec-30-2025